Why prices are moving
Well below normalWhy are potato prices falling right now?
mostly $18.00 per 50 lb carton FOB, Aug 20, 2026, at the benchmark spec. Broadly flat for 1 week.
Data through Aug 20, 2026 · source last checked Aug 21, 2026 · page revised Aug 21, 2026
Cite
- Comparison midpoint
- USDA mostly / low-high range
About this data
- Source
- USDA AMS shipping point potato FOB reports (FV130)
- Series
- Russet Norkotahs, 70-count 50 lb cartons, Upper Valley Idaho, FOB
- Basis
- FOB shipping point, low-high range
- Geography
- Upper Valley Idaho
- Unit
- $/50 lb carton
- Last observation
- Aug 20, 2026
- Update frequency
- USDA reports on business days, in season
The benchmark (Idaho russet Norkotahs, 70-count 50 lb cartons) is quoted at mostly $18.00 per 50 lb carton and has been broadly flat for 1 week. Idaho shipped 833 units of 10,000 pounds on Aug 19, 2026 (USDA movement). 6 origins are currently quoting FOB prices. The market is in the new-crop transition, when the fall harvest normally resets supply for the storage year.
Potato prices at the benchmark spec have been broadly flat for 1 week, with no sustained move in either direction. For the current picture, see the weekly board.
| Period | Current | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week over week | $18.00 | $17.00 | +5.9% |
| Month over month | $18.00 | n/a | n/a |
| Year over year | $18.00 | $16.75 | +7.5% |
| vs 5-yr median | $18.00 | $20.00 | -10.0% |
What makes potato prices fall
Potato prices fall the way they rise, only with the calendar's help: every fall a new crop is dug whether or not the market wants it, and that reset is the single most reliable downward force in this market.
The harvest reset comes first. When the fall crop comes in big and sound across Idaho and the Columbia Basin, the sheds fill, shippers compete for movement, and the benchmark typically sets its seasonal lows in the months after digging.
Storage economics keep the pressure on. A stored potato costs money every month it sits, and the crop must move before quality declines, so a big crop creates its own selling pressure all winter; the movement volumes on the origin pages are the public read on how hard supply is pushing.
A clean size profile keeps the whole ladder cheap. When the crop runs big and uniform, every count is plentiful, the carton-count spread compresses, and no size class can carry a premium worth chasing.
District overlap is the competitive counterweight. When many districts quote at once, the storage regions, the southern spring crops and Canadian imports together, buyers have alternatives and no single shipper can hold a price; the weekly board shows that breadth directly.
Contracted processing volume caps the upside of demand. Most fry and chip potatoes are locked at contract prices before the season, so in a well-supplied year the fresh market cannot lean on processors to absorb the surplus, and the open supply competes for the same fresh demand.
A falling stretch usually starts with a big, sound crop meeting steady demand, with storage economics and district overlap deciding how far it carries. The rising twin of this page covers the same factors running the other way.