The data behind the site
Fresh vs process: why fry contracts don't set your FOB
Fry and chip contracts do not set the fresh potato price because most processing volume, well over half the US crop, is contracted privately before the season and never quoted. The fresh tablestock market, the potatoes packed in cartons, sacks and bags for grocery and foodservice, is the open price-discovery arena this site reports, and the two can diverge in a given year.
Updated Jul 10, 2026
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Most US potatoes never touch the fresh market this site reports, and that is the key to reading a potato price right. Well over half the crop, more than 60 percent by USDA's figures, goes to processing: fries, chips and dehydrated products. Almost all of that volume is contracted between growers and processors before the season, at prices that are private and never quoted openly. The fresh tablestock market, the potatoes packed in cartons, sacks and bags for grocery and foodservice, is the open arena where prices are discovered in public. This site reports that fresh FOB.
Two markets, one crop
A potato field can go either way, but the money is priced very differently. A processing contract is negotiated once, ahead of the season, and locks a grower and a fry or chip plant into a volume at a set price for the year. Those terms do not print on any report. The fresh market prices every week, out in the open, as buyers and shippers trade real lots that USDA reporters confirm. So the number you can watch, the shipping point FOB, is the fresh number. The much larger processing pool sits behind a curtain.
Why the two can diverge
- Columbia Basin
- San Luis Valley
- Idaho
- Wisconsin
Because processing is locked in early and fresh trades live, the two can pull apart in a given year. A crop that grades poorly for fresh table use can still meet a fry spec, or a strong fresh market can pull potatoes away from lower-value uses. The russet chart above is the fresh FOB by origin. It moves on fresh supply and demand, not on what a processor contracted in the spring. A headline about strong fry demand or a big chip contract is real news, but it is not the same thing as a move in the fresh FOB, and it does not set it.
What the board does and does not tell you
The board above is the fresh market, the biggest week-over-week FOB moves across the quoting origins. Read it as exactly that. It tells you what tablestock potatoes traded for and where they moved, the price a fresh buyer or a fresh shipper lives on. It does not tell you what a fry plant paid on a preseason contract, because that number is not public. When fresh supply tightens or loosens, the board shows it. The contract market moves on its own, out of view.
The Russet Report reports the fresh shipping point market as USDA publishes it. Processing contract prices are private and not part of this data, and we do not estimate them or forecast the fresh price.